One hundred years after the Bay Area’s Great Quake, a new study presents the most definitive scenario to date for another monster earthquake ripping along the San Andreas Fault: 

• Up to 3,400 people were dead in Northern California.

• Between 8,000 and 12,500 were seriously injured.

• As many as 10,000 commercial buildings out of commission.

• About 245,000 households were displaced.

• Economic losses that could top $122 billion — and that doesn’t count the damage to transportation networks or utilities, or from any fires that could follow.

In other words, today’s version of the “Big One'’ could be deadlier than last year’s Hurricane Katrina, and just as economically damaging. And if it should rupture the same fault and attain the same magnitude as the 1906 quake, it could last twice as long, with even more devastating effects.

The new scenario is being released in conjunction with the Tuesday’s centennial of the 1906 earthquake. It is based on computer models that simulate how hard the ground could shake in a 24,000-square-mile area of Northern California.